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TOPIC: Trade recovery expected in 2017 and 2018

Trade recovery expected in 2017 and 2018 18 Jul 2017 08:52 #217

  • RDN
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Growth in the volume of world merchandise trade is expected recover in 2017 and 2018, amid policy uncertainty according to WTO press release.

Understand the main points:-
  • World merchandise trade volume is forecast to grow 2.4% in 2017, but due to a high level of uncertainty, this is placed within a range of 1.8-3.6%.
  • This is up from a very weak 1.3% in 2016, as global GDP growth rises to 2.7% this year from 2.3% last year.
  • Trade growth in 2018 should pick up slightly to between 2.1-4.0%.
  • The ratio of trade growth to GDP growth fell below 1:1 in 2016, for the first time since 2001.
  • The slowdown in emerging market economies contributed much to the sluggish rate of trade growth in 2016, but these countries are expected to return to modest growth in 2017.
  • Export orders and container shipping have been strong in the early months of 2017, but trade recovery could be undermined by policy shocks.
  • Policy uncertainty is the main risk factor, including the imposition of trade restrictive measures and monetary tightening.

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